China power shortage The truth behind

　　China is not short of coal or electricity. The current mission of coal power is to seize time for the development of green power.

　　Source: China First Finance

　　China is going through a time window of turning around, from the real estate cycle to the green energy cycle, China is going through a time window of turning around today.

　　Turn around actually refers to the transition between the two cycles-China is moving from the 20-year boom in the real estate cycle to the era of clean energy-this is the background of today's most important and core era.

　　The real estate cycle symbolizes carbon emissions.

　　In the past 40 years of reform and opening up, the Chinese people have really experienced a rapid increase in wealth. Real estate has led to industrialization and urbanization in the last 20 years. This process is the process of carbon emissions. Through carbon emissions, huge material productivity has been created, reaching an unprecedented level today. The material standard of living.

　　The right to carbon emission is the most fundamental right to survival and development of mankind. Carbon emissions are ultimately transformed into productivity and create a higher standard of living. Today, China has fully realized a well-off society.

　　And the second 100-year goal is to create a new industrial structure that is more premium, safer, and able to lead the world. The cornerstone behind this industrial structure is a new energy system, that is, green electricity.

　　The term "from rapid growth to high-quality growth" is used in the Chinese central document.

　　On the basis of such a high level of material living of the Chinese people today, what do we need more urgently? That is green mountains and green water, cleaner air and water, a healthier body, and a more pleasant spirit. state.

　　It is necessary to work hard to change the negative impact that industrialization and urbanization have left on society and the environment while creating huge material wealth.

　　We sometimes joked on social media, saying that the living conditions of the 996 working hour system have caused the quality of sperm and eggs of the young Chinese population to decline, which will directly lead to a demographic crisis and the disappearance of the demographic dividend.

　　The disappearance of the demographic dividend is just the appearance. The essence is that the young Chinese are unwilling to have babies. The direct result is a cliff-like fall in the labor force and labor quality. This is a huge risk in China's future transformation process.

　　How do we resolve it?

　　It is about to turn around in cycles, so our great party held an epoch-making historic meeting last year, the Fifth Plenary Session of the 19th Central Committee. At this meeting, we formulated a long-term plan for the next 15 years. In 2035, we will Reach the level of a moderately developed country.

　　Although there was no specific quantitative target at the meeting, I was serving the national think tank. We have internal calculations. By 2035, China's per capita GDP will reach 24,000 U.S. dollars. In 2019, it has just reached 10,000 U.S. dollars per capita and has passed the well-off society. Threshold.

　　Global values ​​will eventually be unified into the core of clean energy

　　15 years later, the per capita will be 24,000 US dollars, and the 1.5 billion population will be multiplied by 24,000 US dollars. That is to say, by then, China’s economy will exceed the US by 6 to 7 trillion US dollars, and it will undoubtedly become the world’s largest super economy.

　　From the perspective of party history, China is planning for the next 30 years. The chairman calls it a new era. Now is the party’s 100th birthday. What we have imagined is that when the party’s second 100th birthday will come, What will China look like at that time.

　　From the perspective of economic research, this is actually a process of turning around in cycles.

　　It seeks to build the core values ​​of a community with a shared future for mankind through a 30-year effort.

　　There are 5 billion people who have not yet reached the standard of living of China's industrialization and urbanization. If these people are to reach this standard of living, the existing fossil energy consumption pattern is obviously unsustainable.

　　The reflection is very obvious this year. China’s rain this year is clearly moving northward. There has been a lot of rain in northern China this year. From the heavy rains in Zhengzhou to the recent heavy rains in Shanxi during the National Day, more than 60 coal mines have been flooded. Stimulated by this factor, China's thermal coal has reached an unprecedented high price.

　　Only three months ago, the price of thermal coal was around RMB 800. Now it has risen to RMB 1,800. The key is that coal power is the foundation and core of China's energy. Coal power directly corresponds to the pricing of a series of industrial products in China.

　　The disasters brought about by extreme weather, the traditional South American world granary, the 91 years of drought, this year's reduction in grain production, leading to a sharp rise in the prices of agricultural products, these phenomena ultimately reflect that the energy model must be converted.

　　The energy system is the cornerstone of global governance, and the cornerstone of China’s governance in the new era must be green and clean energy

　　In the past three to five hundred years, the most advanced mode of production for mankind has been the transformation of the capitalist world. In the past 300 years, we have experienced two eras of capitalist empires dominating the world, one is the age of Britain’s empire when the sun never sets, and the other is the United States. Behind them are the changes in the way energy is obtained.

　　Watt improved the steam engine and brought Britain into the coal-powered era first, and made the sun never set an empire;

　　Ford invented the internal combustion engine, bringing the United States into the era of oil and gas, leading the United States to govern for 150 years.

　　So at the end of last year, the Politburo of China proposed the dual-carbon 3060 target. This is not a whim, but an agreement of the times.

　　After the Fifth Plenary Session of the 19th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China, the Chinese Communist Party has set a goal for the next 100 years. The goal of our practice is to promote a grand green and clean energy project from the industrial level to create a new energy that belongs to China’s future governance. The system, to replace the existing fossil energy system, actually completes the laying of the foundation for the change of governance.

　　People may not have a deep understanding of green clean energy and dual carbon, and they have not understood from the perspective of the structure. Anyway, everyone rolls up their sleeves and works hard, and finally it even evolves into an extreme sports-style carbon reduction. Electricity has caused short-term troubles to the economy.

　　There is no shortcut to the construction of green and clean energy. It must be born out of the fossil energy system.

　　For example, the construction of photovoltaics requires soda ash, glass, and aluminum, all of which are high-energy-consuming consumables. The electricity required to produce these raw materials is still coal power. 70% of China is thermal power and coal power, because China has the most abundant coal resources, unlike the United States and the Middle East, which are rich in natural gas and oil.

　　Therefore, we must fully understand the law, that is, during the construction period of China's green power, it is impossible to avoid coal power for a long time.

　　The construction of green and clean energy, energy consumption and environmental protection are an impossible triangle.

　　Therefore, the construction of green power comes at a price. The chairman said that a 400GW photovoltaic base will be built in Qinghai in the next five years, which is equivalent to the power generation of 20 Three Gorges. But to build this base, the production of soda ash, glass, and electrolytic aluminum that we need will consume coal and electricity.

　　Only by achieving this goal, can we use green electricity to grow green electricity. In this process, we still need the conversion of fossil energy and coal power.

　　That is to say, our short-term energy consumption indicators must rise, and it is not even ruled out that at a certain stage, we have to endure the staged deterioration of environmental protection indicators in order to complete the ambitious green power construction goals.

　　For example, the recent power cuts.

　　After the power cut, the recent violent volatility in the Chinese stock market, especially since mid-to-late September, has gradually transformed into a phased impact of stock market sentiment. Because the power cut has restricted supply, various resource factors, The prices of industrial products will rise sharply, forming an expectation of stagflation.

　　When you see the PMI production indicators and supply indicators fall down, various price indicators rise, which corresponds to the expectation of stagflation.

　　China is not short of coal or electricity. The current mission of coal power is to seize time for the development of green power.

　　Is China really short of electricity? Is it really a shortage of electricity? No, there are only more than 30 million of China’s 50 million generating sets that are turned on today, and 20 million are not turned on, why not turn on? Because there is no coal, the media is too expensive , The power loss was 30%~40% at one time.

　　Since the reason for the shortcomings is coal, what is the reason for the high price of coal?

　　Naturally, the dual-control indicators are not flexible and scientific enough. Starting from 2018, China’s electricity consumption has increased by 50% in the past five years, and coal production has only increased by 13%. There is a huge gap in between.

　　In addition, this year is the first year of green power construction. Although real estate is suppressed by housing and not speculation, green power construction is also very energy-intensive. The green power construction period is actually a process of rapid release of fossil energy margins.

　　For example, in Zhejiang, if the dual-control indicators are not adjusted, 1/3 of Zhejiang’s industrial production capacity in the fourth quarter of this year will have to be stopped so as not to touch the red line of the dual-control indicators. This is the reason for the power cut and the indicators are not flexible. Caused.

　　China’s goal is to reach 80% of China’s non-fossil energy sources by 2060, which is called carbon neutral.

　　What use was coal at that time? It was useless.

　　After this time of central coordination, Inner Mongolia directly issued a guarantee document, which increased the production of 100 million tons of coal in the fourth quarter because the coal in Inner Mongolia is not mine coal.

　　Therefore, as long as coal comes out and coal-fired power linkages, the power will also rise, so the planned power has not risen for many years. If it is not passed, it will not be a long-term thing to generate political power based on the "four safeguarding four consciousnesses" alone. Therefore, the price mechanism of coal power should also be cleared.

　　Of course, if the supply goes up, the price of coal will be expected to stabilize, and it will rush to 1,700 in the short term. It is indeed because the heavens are not beautiful.

　　In October, the heavy rain in Shanxi flooded more than 60 coal mines. He wanted to pump water to restore production capacity. It took a period of time. It happened that the market amplified the demand for supply and demand.

　　The Chinese economy is completing a cyclical turn. The turn from the real estate cycle to the green electricity cycle is already in progress. How can it be possible to use the historical data of the past ten years to make future deductions?

　　In the past 40 years of reform and opening up, the Chinese people have really experienced a rapid increase in wealth. Real estate has led to industrialization and urbanization in the last 20 years. This process is the process of carbon emissions. Through carbon emissions, huge material productivity has been created, reaching an unprecedented level today. The material standard of living.

　　The right to carbon emission is the most fundamental right to survival and development of mankind. Carbon emissions are ultimately transformed into productivity and create a higher standard of living. Today, China has fully realized a well-off society.

　　And the second 100-year goal is to create a new industrial structure that is more premium, safer, and able to lead the world. The cornerstone behind this industrial structure is a new energy system, that is, green electricity.

　　The term "from rapid growth to high-quality growth" is used in the Chinese central document.

　　On the basis of such a high level of material living of the Chinese people today, what do we need more urgently? That is green mountains and green water, cleaner air and water, a healthier body, and a more pleasant spirit. state.

　　It is necessary to work hard to change the negative impact that industrialization and urbanization have left on society and the environment while creating huge material wealth.

　　We sometimes joked on social media, saying that the living conditions of the 996 working hour system have caused the quality of sperm and eggs of the young Chinese population to decline, which will directly lead to a demographic crisis and the disappearance of the demographic dividend.

　　The disappearance of the demographic dividend is just the appearance. The essence is that the young Chinese are unwilling to have babies. The direct result is a cliff-like fall in the labor force and labor quality. This is a huge risk in China's future transformation process.

　　How do we resolve it?

　　It is about to turn around in cycles, so our great party held an epoch-making historic meeting last year, the Fifth Plenary Session of the 19th Central Committee. At this meeting, we formulated a long-term plan for the next 15 years. In 2035, we will Reach the level of a moderately developed country.

　　Although there was no specific quantitative target at the meeting, I was serving the national think tank. We have internal calculations. By 2035, China's per capita GDP will reach 24,000 U.S. dollars. In 2019, it has just reached 10,000 U.S. dollars per capita and has passed the well-off society. Threshold.

　　Global values ​​will eventually be unified into the core of clean energy

　　15 years later, the per capita will be 24,000 US dollars, and the 1.5 billion population will be multiplied by 24,000 US dollars. That is to say, by then, China’s economy will exceed the US by 6 to 7 trillion US dollars, and it will undoubtedly become the world’s largest super economy. .

　　From the perspective of party history, China is planning for the next 30 years. The chairman calls it a new era. Now is the party’s 100th birthday. What we have imagined is that when the party’s second 100th birthday will come, What will China look like at that time.

　　From the perspective of economic research, this is actually a process of turning around in cycles.

　　It seeks to build the core values ​​of a community with a shared future for mankind through a 30-year effort.

　　There are 5 billion people who have not yet reached the standard of living of China's industrialization and urbanization. If these people are to reach this standard of living, the existing fossil energy consumption pattern is obviously unsustainable.

　　The reflection is very obvious this year. China’s rain this year is clearly moving northward. There has been a lot of rain in northern China this year. From the heavy rains in Zhengzhou to the recent heavy rains in Shanxi during the National Day, more than 60 coal mines have been flooded. Stimulated by this factor, China's thermal coal has reached an unprecedented high price.

　　Only three months ago, the price of thermal coal was around RMB 800. Now it has risen to RMB 1,800. The key is that coal power is the foundation and core of China's energy. Coal power directly corresponds to the pricing of a series of industrial products in China.

　　The disasters brought about by extreme weather, the traditional South American world granary, the 91 years of drought, this year's reduction in grain production, leading to a sharp rise in the prices of agricultural products, these phenomena ultimately reflect that the energy model must be converted.

　　The energy system is the cornerstone of global governance, and the cornerstone of China’s governance in the new era must be green and clean energy

　　In the past three to five hundred years, the most advanced mode of production for mankind has been the transformation of the capitalist world. In the past 300 years, we have experienced two eras of capitalist empires dominating the world, one is the age of Britain’s empire when the sun never sets, and the other is the United States. Behind them are the changes in the way energy is obtained.

　　Watt improved the steam engine and brought Britain into the coal-powered era first, and made the sun never set an empire;

　　Ford invented the internal combustion engine, bringing the United States into the era of oil and gas, leading the United States to govern for 150 years.

　　So at the end of last year, the Politburo of China proposed the dual-carbon 3060 target. This is not a whim, but an agreement of the times.

　　After the Fifth Plenary Session of the 19th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China, the Chinese Communist Party has set a goal for the next 100 years. The goal of our practice is to promote a grand green and clean energy project from the industrial level to create a new energy that belongs to China’s future governance. The system, to replace the existing fossil energy system, actually completes the laying of the foundation for the change of governance.

　　People may not have a deep understanding of green clean energy and dual carbon, and they have not understood from the perspective of the structure. Anyway, everyone rolls up their sleeves and works hard, and finally it even evolves into an extreme sports-style carbon reduction. Electricity has caused short-term troubles to the economy.

　　There is no shortcut to the construction of green and clean energy. It must be born out of the fossil energy system.

　　For example, the construction of photovoltaics requires soda ash, glass, and aluminum, all of which are high-energy-consuming consumables. The electricity required to produce these raw materials is still coal power. 70% of China is thermal power and coal power, because China has the most abundant coal resources, unlike the United States and the Middle East, which are rich in natural gas and oil.

　　Therefore, we must fully understand the law, that is, during the construction period of China's green power, it is impossible to avoid coal power for a long time.

　　The construction of green and clean energy, energy consumption and environmental protection are an impossible triangle.

　　Therefore, the construction of green power comes at a price. The chairman said that a 400GW photovoltaic base will be built in Qinghai in the next five years, which is equivalent to the power generation of 20 Three Gorges. But to build this base, the production of soda ash, glass, and electrolytic aluminum that we need will consume coal and electricity.

　　Only by achieving this goal, can we use green electricity to grow green electricity. In this process, we still need the conversion of fossil energy and coal power.

　　That is to say, our short-term energy consumption indicators must rise, and it is not even ruled out that at a certain stage, we have to endure the staged deterioration of environmental protection indicators in order to complete the ambitious green power construction goals.

　　For example, the recent power cuts.

　　After the power cut, the recent violent volatility in the Chinese stock market, especially since mid-to-late September, has gradually transformed into a phased impact of stock market sentiment. Because the power cut has restricted supply, various resource factors, The prices of industrial products will rise sharply, forming an expectation of stagflation.

　　When you see the PMI production indicators and supply indicators fall down, various price indicators rise, which corresponds to the expectation of stagflation.

　　Is China really short of electricity? Is it really a shortage of electricity? No, there are only more than 30 million of China’s 50 million generating sets that are turned on today, and 20 million are not turned on, why not turn on? Because there is no coal, the media is too expensive , The power loss was 30%~40% at one time.

　　Since the reason for the shortcomings is coal, what is the reason for the high price of coal?

　　Naturally, the dual-control indicators are not flexible and scientific enough. Starting from 2018, China’s electricity consumption has increased by 50% in the past five years, and coal production has only increased by 13%. There is a huge gap in between.

　　In addition, this year is the first year of green power construction. Although real estate is suppressed by housing and not speculation, green power construction is also very energy-intensive. The green power construction period is actually a process of rapid release of fossil energy margins.

　　For example, in Zhejiang, if the dual-control indicators are not adjusted, 1/3 of Zhejiang’s industrial production capacity in the fourth quarter of this year will have to be stopped so as not to touch the red line of the dual-control indicators. This is the reason for the power cut and the indicators are not flexible Caused.

　　China’s goal is to reach 80% of China’s non-fossil energy sources by 2060, which is called carbon neutral.

　　What use was coal at that time? It was useless.

　　After this time of central coordination, Inner Mongolia directly issued a guarantee document, which increased the production of 100 million tons of coal in the fourth quarter because the coal in Inner Mongolia is not mine coal.

　　Therefore, as long as coal comes out and coal-fired power linkages, the power will also rise, so the planned power has not risen for many years. If it is not passed, it will not be a long-term thing to generate political power based on the "four safeguarding four consciousnesses" alone. Therefore, the price mechanism of coal power should also be cleared.

　　Of course, if the supply goes up, the price of coal will be expected to stabilize, and it will rush to 1,700 in the short term. It is indeed because the heavens are not beautiful.

　　In October, the heavy rain in Shanxi flooded more than 60 coal mines. He wanted to pump water to restore production capacity. It took a period of time. It happened that the market amplified the demand for supply and demand.

　　The Chinese economy is completing a cyclical turn. The turn from the real estate cycle to the green electricity cycle is already in progress. How can it be possible to use the historical data of the past ten years to make future deductions?

　　First Finance 2021, First Finance Home page, November 2021, First Finance.Available from: https://www.yicai.com/news/101202989.html. [25 November 2021].